Friday Pick-5 Looks Playable – And Winnable

Jun 22, 2012 | Handicapping

Charlie Waffles - 2012 Frank Arnason Sire Stakes

Charlie Waffles - Frank Arnason Sire Stakes

by Rob

Bob’s weekly piece featured the $25,000 Frank Arnason Sire Stakes and the history of that race. I will leave the history to him and concentrate instead on this year’s rendition of the race for 3-year-old Manitoba-breds, which goes as the seventh race on Saturday afternoon.

Danger Rules should be the heavy favourite in this race and deservingly so. He chased a tough older Manitoba-bred in Going for a Few in his last and in the race before that he chased good open 3-year-olds. He is a horse with a lot of speed, but he will not likely be the only speed.

Northern Fancy has early speed and won a Maiden Special Weight race two back before finishing sixth behind Danger Rules and Going for a Few. Kola Kat rallied well in that same race to finish fourth. Even though he still is a maiden, Kola Kat has run well to finish fourth twice this year and he made a winning move in the Buffalo Stakes last year before tiring.

Charlie Waffles is the other speed in the Arnason and he crushed a Manitoba-bred field of claimers in his last. He has on occasion shown brilliant speed, especially in his first start this year and in his maiden breaker last year against open company. Charlie Waffles should be able to challenge and definitely grab a piece of the purse. His odds should also be enticing, as I think he will drift up from his morning line to about 6-1.

Saturday afternoon also features the second 2-year-old race of the year. I guess I should try to pick another winner after Sharp A last week at $25. This race will have a huge favorite in Caught Lion, who has run twice in Toronto, but I think she is vulnerable. A Girl’s Gotta Do is a Manitoba-bred, but was working with Sharp A, and should have similar speed if the workout times translate over to Saturday. The horse I think is worth using though is Absolute Flash, trained by Ardell Sayler.

A striking gray filly, Absolute Flash has a decent workout pattern, but even more intriguing is her pedigree. Her sire, Flashy Bull was one of the hottest freshmen sires last year, and he remains in high demand as a stallion. Her dam Absolutely Amazing was not much as a racehorse but has breeding that is very similar to that of the undefeated Balooga Bull. Crusader Sword is the broodmare sire of both horses and Crusader Sword mares have had solid success. C.C. Ride is a stakes winner locally, Balooga Bull is a multiple stakes winner, and in general mares by Crusader Sword produce winners at a 50% rate. Absolute Flash is my play in this race to upset Caught Lion.

Friday night offers a mix of races and a Pick-5 carryover that looks playable and winnable.

The second race on Friday is wide open with Show Me Yours, I’m Magic, Reina’s Place, Hotkittyinthecity and Mariacomo all having a chance to win. The third looks like a two horse race between Citizen Patrol and Bunny Said Dance. The other horse I would look at in the third race is Remiewarningbluz. Depending on how she looks in the paddock, Remiewarningbluz could be good value, especially if she runs as well as her dam, multiple stakes-winner Remiewaterbluz.

The fourth race should set up for Babble Champ but I am going to throw two longshots out there in Holy Melody, who is making a huge class drop from open Maiden $7,500 down to Manitoba-bred $5,000 maidens, and Missionimpetesible, who for the first time ever showed signs of life when making the lead in her last. Many horses that show speed for the first time will wake up in their next start, and you will get a monster price.

The fifth race is wide open. Ezlovingsosexylooking should like the distance, but I will be using four or five horses in this race. The sixth race should be between Lucky Bites, who broke poorly last out; the very fast Tribal Sign; and Barramoon. The latter has been facing much tougher and will try to circle the field.

As for the Chantilly Stakes, take your pick. I really think Plus Ultra and La Chiquilina could run huge races, with likely favourite She’s Copacetic rallying late.

I will split my Best Bet section this weekend into two parts, a Longshot of the Day and a Best Bet. Best bets are horses at any odds who I think are very much a cinch, while longshots are horses at 5-1 or better on the morning line that I think have a shot.

Don’t forget, early post time on Saturday is 1 p.m. Good Luck!

Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots

Friday Best Bet: Race 1 – Applicant

Friday Longshot: Race 4 – Holy Melody

Saturday Best Bet: Race 7 – Danger Rules

Saturday Longshot: Race 2 – Tizzy’s Desert Star

Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7 p.m. Friday, June 22, 2012