Handicapping Manitoba Lotteries Derby Weekend 2012

Aug 3, 2012 | Handicapping

Friday ASD Longshot: Sweet Margi

Friday ASD Longshot: Sweet Margi

by Rob

Monday, August 6, is Manitoba Lotteries Derby Day. It’s our biggest day of live racing and it’s shaping up to be incredibly exciting! The four stakes races carded for Derby Day should all have large competitive fields with no clear cut favorites – which means bigger and better payoffs if you can find your horse.

Don’t Forget:

  • RCMP Musical Ride at ASD Friday, Aug. 3 and Saturday, Aug. 4
  • Insider Newsletter: Derby Day Preview, “Bad Boy” Delorme returns

Graduation Stakes: If Charlie Smith brings Portales she will be very tough against the boys, if not, look for one of trainer Ardell Sayler’s charges to jump up and win it. Chica Wow Wow, Two Barrel Tootie and Cmonbabylitemyfire would be the top contenders. A longshot to consider would be Douglass.

Assiniboia Oaks: Should be about an 8-horse field. Look for She’s Copacetic and Heavenly Lioness to be the favourites among the locals. Shippers Rahab Your Soul from Lone Star Park and Claresmiezie from Northlands Park will be the logical favourites if they enter.

R. J. Speers: This race will have a full field and I think and once again I am going with the shippers, I Am Awesome, Alisal and Inhisglory. These three horses have the best form and should be very tough.

Manitoba Lotteries Derby: This is the toughest Derby that I can remember. I will use the undefeated Up Jumps a Monster, the long striding Clear the Runway, speedball The Gov and local longshot So Shiny.

Monday Pick 4: Here is my first crack at the Monday Pick-4 if it runs through the four stakes. The Monday Pick-4 is guaranteed at $10,000 and should easily exceed that. I have not yet seen the past performances or post positions but I am giving it a shot for $36.

  • Portales, Douglass and Cattle Hauler in the Graduation Stakes (3)
  • Claresmiezie and She’s Copacetic in the Assiniboia Oaks (2)
  • Inhisglory and Alisal in the R. J. Speers (2)
  • So Shiny, Up Jumps a Monster and Clear the Runway in the Manitoba Lotteries Derby (3)

Total $1 Pick-4 Bet is 3 x 2 x 2 x 3= $36 (If all my picks enter.)

Friday Night: The first two races look obvious with Naughty Dotty getting Aaron Sayler back into the Winner’s Circle in the first race and Bridge and Tunnel in the second. The third race, the Manitoba Distaff Prep, is between Bondola and Kommando Kate and is merely a race to see who gets to be second choice in the Distaff behind Golden Stripe. I think a longshot could score in the fourth race Friday night. Look for Menta Be Perfect, Extra Fudge or Real Ruby to pop up and win. Rock N Royal should cruise home in the fifth. The sixth is wide open. I took an extra look at Sweet Margi, maybe she can rally a little bit down the lane with Simpson aboard. The seventh, the Agassiz Stakes Prep, is once again wide open. Going for a Few and C.C. Ride are the main contenders in my book. I am always going to bet against Hop Along Harry in a race like this as he will be a very short price. Tannat has also been improving as the races have stretched out. The eighth race is one of the toughest races all year in terms of handicapping and the quarter horses in the ninth are difficult for me but Cosmic Shindig looks good.

Saturday Night: The first race is for 2-year-olds. Take your pick and hope. The second race should go very, very quickly. Pivot Pad, Kbello, Positive Force and The Phenom all have blazing early speed. Hi Ho Cahill might be worth a shot at a price. The third race is for quarter horses and I will try the Ima Dashin Stoli. The first leg of the Pick-4 in the fourth race is wide open with Anga, Rogue River and Shadarockem. The fifth is an allowance race in which Unbridled Thoughts could very easily get loose on the lead and wire the field. I also will look at Joanie Baloney, Restless Saint and Giveyourheadashake. The sixth race is tricky. Daddy’s Vision might be loose on the lead and if not I think I will go with Toccet’s Charm and Calitor. The final leg of the Pick-4 in the seventh is between Show Me Yours and California Poppy. California Poppy is fast and if she can keep running they may not catch her. Show Me Yours is a gritty Manitoba-bred who has won three times this year for trainer Blair Miller. The eighth is the Winnipeg Sun Stakes. It looks like Golden Stripe’s race to lose and I think she will. I will use Finally Flying along with Paris by Night to try to upset the champ. In the ninth and final I like longshot No Gimmick. He rallies well and I will use him along with Cash Up Front, Soul of a Samurai and one of my personal favorite horses, McCart.

Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots

Record-to-Date 13-5-4 from 31 starts

Wagered: $455.00 Returned: $552.40 Profit: $97.40

Friday Best Bet: Race 2 — Bridge and Tunnel

Friday Longshot: Race 6 — Sweet Margi

Saturday Best Bet: Race 5 — Unbridled Thoughts

Saturday Longshot: Race 9 — No Gimmick

Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7 p.m. Friday, August 3, 2012