Derby Weekend Hangover

Aug 10, 2012 | Handicapping

by Rob

For some of us, Manitoba Lotteries Derby weekend was an absolute godsend; for others it was a nightmarish affair. Big favorites like Golden Stripe and Portales were defeated, while hometown heroes like Balooga Bull and Jon Q prevailed.

To be honest, the most thrilling affair of last weekend for me was the quarter horse stake Friday night with Robert Reeves Jr. nailing Eye Fly Bye at the wire with Cosmic Shindig. Now that the Manitoba Derby is over and the hats have been put away, it’s time for a fresh new outlook!

Pick-5 Friday with Carryover

The first leg of the Pick-5 with a $600 plus carryover starts in the second race, a $5,000 NW3 claimer. This is a minor spread race and I think three horses are needed: Coles Cave, Toccer and Our Boy Ken. Our Boy Ken needed his last start and should improve while Toccer and Coles Cave are the two ralliers in a race that should feature a hot pace.

Artic Fire maybe a key?

Artic Fire ran a good fourth last time even after he was troubled out of the gate by the fallen Calitor. He makes his return to the races and looks like a key. He is versatile, always seems to fire and is certainly the horse to beat. The other horse I will use here is the 4-year-old Got Milch, another rallier in a wide open race. He was quite impressive winning the NW4L condition last time out.

Another Two-Horse Race

The fourth race kicks off the Pick-4 and in my opinion it’s a two-horse race. Temple Bar should be rallying and the Edge of the World has speed to go with route experience. Temple Bar keeps getting closer and closer and might finally be due to win, much like Hobo Hwy last weekend. Edge of the World has routed well twice on the lead and should dictate the pace in this race.

The Big Horse

Baronshill will be a massive favorite in the fifth race and he could very well get loose again. Jennifer Reid is aboard again and this monster of a horse will be very tough. The other horse I will use in here, Academy of Music, will be my bomber for the Pick-5. He was behind a wall of horses last time and came running late only to be beaten only two lengths. Senior Citizen has since to come back to win and he was close in that race as well.

Final Leg

The final leg of the Pick-5 looks like a two-horse race in my opinion. Gunton Road and Maintenance Man tower above this field and should run one-two.

The Pick-5 looks like this: 2,3,5/1,5/1,4/4,7/2,5 = $48

A Fun Observation for the Week

Not only can I occasionally pick a horse to hit the board, I can find little oddities in racing that belong in The Insider, but will end up in here, the graveyard of favorites. Pull up both Friday and Saturday’s entries. In the sixth race on Friday, Billy’s Warrior will go off as a longshot. He is a Manitoba-bred gelding that covered a number of mares before he was gelded. One of those was Sampo’s Fool. The foal from that mating makes his first lifetime start in Saturday’s fourth race as Honorable Warrior.

Has anyone ever seen that before? If Honorable Warrior wins at some point this year or next, and Billy’s Warrior doesn’t, they could hook up in a race next year.

Guy Kling certainly makes his barn a family affair.

Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots

Record-to-Date 14-6-4 from 35 starts

Wagered: $515.00 Returned: $584.40 Profit: $69.40

Friday Best Bet: Race 1 — Exclusive Crown

Friday Longshot: Race 6 — Maintenance Man

Saturday Best Bet: Race 4 — Grand Vision

Saturday Longshot: Race 8 Vee Vhoom Rules

Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7 p.m. Friday, August 10, 2012