Labour Day long weekend looks favorable for longshots at ASD

Aug 31, 2012 | Handicapping

NCI Manitoba Derby Pre-Game Show

NCI Manitoba Derby Pre-Game Show with Scott Taylor and Chad Torevell

by Rob

Last weekend was filled with short-priced favourites, stakes races and impressive performances. Balooga Bull romped home in an allowance race, Red Rebellion won a Maiden Special Weight race and the five stakes races were won mostly by the Sayler family (Da Hoot, She’s Copacetic, Arstar and Two Barrel Tootie) along with the cinch that was Golden Stripe in the Distaff Stakes. This weekend lacks the star power of last weekend, but a collection of allowance races and competitive claiming events makes this long weekend intriguing.

Droppers in the first

The first race on Friday features two droppers exiting a $5,000 condition claiming race into a $2,500 non-winners of the year. She’s Above Da Law and Ziva D. should be the top two contenders in here, but Atta’ Girl could be a moderate priced longshot with Shad Belle aboard. Atta’ Girl would be the first win of the year for the young rider. Ziva D. Could also get loose on the front end.

Think First, Bet Second

The second race on Friday night is where I think the parade of longshots will begin. Global Love will be the prohibitive favorite but she has had no excuses in her latest outings. I will happily take a shot against her. My two picks are the two speed horses. Charday’s Girl gets blinkers for leading trainer Shelley Brown and should control the pace, and Tizwitty, who made the lead last time, should stalk in this race and could get first run at Charday’s Girl. Think First is my huge bomber pick to jump up into the superfecta.

Matron Prep

The $50,000 Matron Stakes is the finale for older fillies and mares and this prep sets up this group of mares for that race. The older filly and mare division is up for grabs as Golden Stripe has been retired, Honorable Lady has gone to Northlands Park and Cell Line Forever is on the shelf with an injury. Witch’s Coven won the Winnipeg Sun Stakes as a result of a dream setup and that leaves the top perch in the older filly and mare division wide open. Finally Flying is my pick in this race. Finally Flying previously won a similar allowance race, beating the same group of mares, and last time she was compromised by the early pace. Jilleah and City Splash closed into that hot pace last time and might not like the slower pace on Friday night.

No Golden Stripe for Lucy With Diamonds

Lucy With Diamonds was the runner up in the $50,000 Distaff Stakes, holding off Kommando Kate for second, but she was never going to catch Golden Stripe. She should find this allowance field more to her liking. She is my best bet of the night and can control the pace. If I had to pick a bomber in here I would take Dave’s Con Job who has done everything right since arriving from Prairie Meadows, and now tests allowance company. Tactical Girl won this condition last time out and if Lucy With Diamonds doesn’t fire she would be the next logical contender.

Going for a Few Waffles?

The fifth race is an allowance race for Manitoba-bred colts and geldings that features 2011 Sifton Stakes winner C.C. Ride. At the morning line odds of even money I believe that C.C. Ride is a firm bet against. He is a closer in a race that should set up very much like the Agassiz Stakes. Pure Glory got loose in that race and it looks like the early players in this race could be the horses to bet. Those two are Going for a Few and Charlie Waffles. Going for a Few has lots of early speed and ran a good fourth in an allowance race before being banged around in the Agassiz prep, if he gets loose he could be tough. Charlie Waffles is a bomber that I think could play a big part in this race. He stayed on well to run third in the Gold Strike Mile and has the right running style for the 7 ½-furlong distance. In his first start for new trainer Chad Torevell he might lite up the tote board.

Agassiz winner looks to cruise again

Pure Glory won the Agassiz Stakes earlier in August under a hand ride because he made the lead and just kept going. In this first level allowance race he will not be able to make the lead so easily. Baronshill is a speed horse and so is Our Boy Ken and they will be banging heads early with Pure Glory. That may set the race up for Hop Along Harry who had a rough trip in the Agassiz, but I also want to throw two more price horses out there. Lots of Chrome and Big Leap, both are coming off Maiden Special Weight wins and could surprise at a price. Toccet’s Charm looks like he will be the other favorite but he has yet to win this year and has a running style that sometimes compromises him.

Saturday thoughts…

Saturday is a card very similar to Friday’s card. The first race is a wide open affair for 2-year-olds. The second race is between Del Mar Drama and Daddy’s Vision. The third race is the third leg of the Marathon series and Forchtenberg looks like the class of the field. The fourth and fifth races are both claiming races that are wide open and I like Mega Precious and Always a Party respectively in those two races. The feature race Saturday is a second level allowance race with Fresh Ice and Spring Soup as the two main contenders. Cahill Chrome will be an interesting contender in here too.

Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots

Record-to-Date 18-7-6 from 47 starts

Wagered: $685.00 Returned: $713.00 Profit: $28.00

Friday Best Bet: Race 4 – Lucy With Diamonds

Friday Longshot: Race 5 – Charlie Waffles

Saturday Best Bet: Race 3 – Forchtenberg

Saturday Longshot: Race 5 – Always a Party

Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7 p.m. Friday, August 31, 2012