By G.S. Thompson
Well, the AI had all three horses last week in the Cigar Mile, but in the wrong order. Close but no…Cigar! We got our money back with a win-place bet on Mullikin, who finished second to Locked, and we also got the triactor, but we really wanted Mullikin to win, and we couldn’t tell which way Locked was going to go on the class raise.
This week we asked the AI to tackle the La Prevoyante Stakes at Woodbine on Saturday, and we’re hoping it’s right about heavy morning-line favourite Fashionably Fab being vulnerable.
LA PREVOYANTE STAKES Analysis
Race 9, Woodbine, Saturday, December 14, 2024
1 1/16 Miles (Tapeta) | Purse: $100,000 | Ontario-sired F&M
Top Selections:
- WAR PAINTER
- HURRICANE CLAIR
- FASHIONABLY FAB
Longshot: TITO’S CALLING
Saturday’s La Prevoyante Stakes at Woodbine features several intriguing angles that could lead to an upset of morning line favourite Fashionably Fab. While the defending champion has been facing better company in graded stakes, there are signs she may be vulnerable after a taxing campaign.
War Painter appears to be peaking at the perfect time, having shown an impressive turn of foot to capture the restricted Ashbridges Bay at Woodbine in her most recent start going today’s distance despite racing wide throughout. Her ability to accelerate late between horses demonstrates newfound maturity, and the Kevin Attard trainee matches up solidly with these on figures, having posted an 80 Beyer at the distance.
Hurricane Clair lost nothing in defeat when second by a neck to War Painter in the Ashbridges Bay. Under a patient ride from the inside, she made a strong move between rivals and just missed. Former Winnipeg training star conditioner Martin Drexler has her in peak form, and leading Woodbine rider Sahin Civaci knows how to win with her. Her tactical speed and 81 career-best Beyer make her a serious threat.
Fashionably Fab may have tipped her hoof in the Maple Leaf (G3) when she made a premature move on the turn and tired late in the stretch against better than she meets here. While the cut back to 1 1/16-miles should help, and she’s dominated several of these rivals in the past, there are signs the campaign may be catching up with her. She’s still the one to beat on class and figures but looks like she might be vulnerable at a short price. And she could even steal this race with a perfect slow-down trip on the lead, but…
Tito’s Calling offers value potential as a deep closer who should benefit if the pace develops honestly. She was third in this race last year with an 80 Beyer and finished well in the Eternal Search on the turf two starts back. She’ll need some pace to run at but could complete the exotics at a price if she can find her best synthetic form.
Talk to Ya Later ran creditably last out when second in an allowance at the distance, though she couldn’t seal the deal in the stretch as the winner got the jump on her early. Her mid-pack running style and proven ability over the track make her a logical use underneath in the lower rungs of your superfectas. Fortyfiveseventy showed late interest when second in her latest but may be a cut below the top contenders.
The race features a questionable pace scenario with several tactical types looking to establish position. If favourite Fashionable Fab doesn’t send to the lead early, the race could set up well for both War Painter and Hurricane Clair to get first run on the closers. With Fashionably Fab potentially vulnerable after a taxing campaign, the value lies with these improving fillies who appear to be peaking at the right time.
Let’s cash some tickets!