By G.S. Thompson
Experience and Strategy Pays Off in Player’s Choice
Doug Evans hold on to defeat Free Press handicapper George Williams by a nose.
Doug Evans (pictured above) has been handicapping horse races since he was 16 years old, starting at tracks in Toronto and Orangeville. His decades of experience paid off in last Saturday’s Player’s Choice Handicapping Tournament, as he hit a longshot on his first bet and held on late to defeat Winnipeg Free Press handicapper George Williams by the slimmest of margins.
The 77-year-old retired pharmaceutical sales regional manager built his bankroll to $104.00, just enough to nose out Williams ($102.50) in what turned out to be a tough day for longshot players. Kathleen Buckoski ($99.00) finished third, followed by Cecelia Liebrecht ($95.00) and Ron Phelps ($90.10).
“I didn’t think I was going to win it,” Evans said, despite getting off to a blazing start with 15-1 longshot Venezuelan Triumph in the first race at Tampa Bay. “I knew I had over a hundred bucks, but I thought, well, I hope I get in the top five.”
Evans’ victory was built on a methodical approach he’s developed over his six decades of handicapping. His strategy for tournament play is distinct: attack the first five races looking for longshots, then adjust based on results. In this case, his approach paid immediate dividends when his first selection returned $33.30, $13.50 and $8.10 across the board.
“The very first one got me right in there,” Evans recalled. “When that hit, I thought, ‘geez, I better get serious here.” That initial score proved crucial, as Evans went on to cash tickets on each of his first five selections before cooling off slightly in the latter half of the tournament.
While some handicappers pour over speed figures and pace scenarios, Evans has developed his own approach focused primarily on board betting – watching the odds movements in the minutes leading up to post time. “You know, the horse is going to be like 20-1 and all of a sudden he’s going down, down, down to 10-1,” said Evans. “And then there’s two minutes left and he drops again. You’re thinking, ‘Somebody’s knowledgeable money is being bet on that horse.’”
Evans also maintains strict criteria for the types of races he’ll play. He likes to play races with seven horses or less. “I don’t want 12 horses in a race, it’s easier to pick one out of seven.” said Evans, applying the same analytical mindset that served him well during his career managing pharmaceutical sales teams.
This isn’t Evans’ first tournament success. He’s previously won two other handicapping tournaments at Assiniboia Downs, including one that earned him a trip to Las Vegas for the Orleans World Series of Handicapping. Competing against roughly 700 players in Vegas, he actually led the tournament after day one. And that’s extremely difficult to do!
Despite his success, Evans maintains a modest approach to the game. “I’m not a big bettor. I mean, I’m a two and five-dollar bettor, that’s it,” he said, crediting much of his development as a handicapper to his friend and mentor Larry Liebrecht, noting that while they often land on the same horses, they frequently arrive there through different handicapping angles.
Evans has also been a horse owner, having been part of Hardball Stable years ago, but it’s the socializing aspect of the game and the intellectual challenge of handicapping that keeps him engaged with the sport. He continues to study and evolve his approach, watching handicapping videos on YouTube and reading classic handicapping texts like Steve Davidowitz’s “Betting Thoroughbreds,” which he’s read multiple times.
The tournament victory earned Evans $1,000 and a trophy, which he plans to turn into Christmas money for his grandkids. While the victory was sweet, he’s quick to emphasize that he approaches horse playing primarily as entertainment. “If I lose, I lose. It’s not going to hurt me. I’ve got my pension. I’m not spending my kids’ inheritance,” he chuckled.
Evans, who has been playing at Assiniboia Downs for over 20 years since moving to Manitoba from Ontario, had nothing but praise for our local track and its management. “I think Assiniboia Downs is a great track,” he said. “Sheri (Glendinning) does a phenomenal job. I hope she’s there for a long time.” He particularly appreciates how Sheri looks after the handicappers, noting her thoughtfulness in sending out tournament forms ahead of time.
Meanwhile, the race for Handicapper of the Year remains tight heading into the final Player’s Choice tournament of the year on December 28. Randy Premachuk, who finished seventh in Saturday’s tourney, currently leads the standings with 269 points, followed by Darcy Penner (255), Alan Hampton (241), Trevor Phelps (241), and Nicole Baker (228). With $3,500 and year-end bragging rights on the line, the competition promises to be fierce in the final tourney.
For Evans, who now lives in Selkirk and makes the drive to Assiniboia Downs regularly during the live meet, the victory validates his systematic approach to tournament play. “I look at it for the fun aspect,” he said, but his methodical strategy and years of experience suggest he’s having fun, precisely because he’s figured out what works.
Congratulations Doug! Well done!