By G.S. Thompson
Wouldn’t it be nice if you could get AI to do all the heavy lifting when you’re handicapping the races? AI is getting smarter by the second, and it can now read PDFs of Past Performances. It also understands most if not all basic handicapping concepts.
We asked the $20-a-month paid version of Claude.ai to handicap Race 4 at Woodbine on Friday, November 15, and you can see the results below. We don’t 100 percent agree with the output but it’s decent considering we’ve barely taught the AI anything about handicapping yet.
AI is only as smart as the person training it when you first start prompting it for answers but as it produces results it can be further tweaked to provide more detailed answers, and you can feed the actual results back into it so that it can learn where it was right or wrong.
We prompted AI to analyze a race for basic factors such as speed, class, and pace. We also asked it to identify contenders, suggest longshots and value plays, and offer a basic wagering strategy. A more detailed prompt might include your personal favourite handicapping angles and your own specific knowledge about the track you’re playing.
The prompt we used, and the output the AI produced, for Race 4 on Friday at Woodbine, are included below. After the race has run, we’ll tell Claude.ai what the actual results were, and right or wrong, it will learn from those results.
AI is going to get better and better at predictive analytics such as those required for handicapping a horse race. There are already numerous apps that provide AI horse racing picks which are based on probabilities, but just imagine if you could train the AI to handicap a race in your style, and then apply it to hundreds of races a day. Would it be like, ‘Where’s the wheel barrow? 😊’ Not just yet, but…
Imagine the possibilities.
INPUT: Prompt for Claude.ai accompanied by a PDF of Race 4 at Woodbine on Friday, November 15, 2024
Using the attached PDF of Race 4 at Woodbine on Friday, November 15, please provide a comprehensive race analysis including race overview and conditions, detailed analysis of each contender including Beyer Speed Figures, form, connections, workouts, trainer patterns, pace scenario, class analysis, value assessment, contender rankings, complete betting strategies, special situations and angles. Please note any troubled trips, significant trainer/jockey stats, and key patterns that impact the analysis.
OUTPUT: Handicapping Analysis for Race 4 at Woodbine, Friday November 15
RACE OVERVIEW
- $39,900 Claiming race for 3-year-olds and up who have never won two races
- Distance: 1 1/16 miles on synthetic Tapeta surface
- Claiming price: $15,000 (with $14,000 optional tag)
- Weight: 3YO-123lbs, Older-125lbs
- Non-winners of a race at a mile or over in 2024 allowed 2lbs
- Beyer par: 68
PACE ANALYSIS Early Speed:
- Shamateur (2) – Consistent front-runner showing speed in recent starts
- Fast and Ready (7) – Has shown early foot in sprints
- Play the Dots (9) – Can show early speed but not consistent
Projected Pace: MODERATE
- Shamateur likely takes the lead but shouldn’t face intense pressure
- Fast and Ready trying routes for first time could press
- Several closers should benefit if pace heats up
CONTENDER ANALYSIS (In Order of Preference)
1. ETHNIC SOUL (10) – 7/2 Strengths:
- Four trifecta finishes since returning from layoff
- Strong closing kick and improving Beyers
- R.M. Hernandez retains mount
- Will benefit from pace setup
- Good value at morning line Weaknesses:
- 0-for-4 in 2024
- Needs clean trip from off the pace
2. SHAMATEUR (2) – 3/1 Strengths:
- Consistent front-runner with good tactical speed
- Three straight in-the-money finishes at this level
- Proven at the distance and surface
- Could control moderate pace Weaknesses:
- May face pressure from Fast and Ready
- Morden/Moran combo 0-for-7 since 2021
3. ZAKHARI (5) – 4/1 Strengths:
- Game second last time at lower level
- Adding blinkers for first time since April 2023
- Versatile running style
- Burke solid 11% win rate in 2024 Weaknesses:
- Steps up in class from last
- New rider Adams first time for barn
4. PET SOUNDS (8) – 6/1 Strengths:
- Competitive at this level
- McKnight 13% win rate in 2024
- Can sit good trip behind leaders Weaknesses:
- Flattened last time when making bid
- Another rider change
- Better around one turn
VALUE PLAYS & BETTING STRATEGY
Win Bet:
- Ethnic Soul (10) at 3/1 or better
Exacta Box:
- Ethnic Soul (10)
- Shamateur (2)
- Zakhari (5)
Trifecta Strategy:
- Key Ethnic Soul (10) over Shamateur (2), Zakhari (5), Pet Sounds (8)
- Also use as a saver: Shamateur (2) with Ethnic Soul (10), Zakhari (5)
Key Factors:
- Pace setup favors Ethnic Soul’s closing style
- Class drop beneficial for Shamateur
- Addition of blinkers could wake up Zakhari
- Several recent troubled trips suggest untapped potential in some runners
ANGLES/NOTES:
- Trainer Norm McKnight solid 13% at meet
- Burke adding blinkers historically effective
- Surface specialist advantage for main contenders
- Several runners dropping from higher levels seeking confidence
The race sets up well for a closer like Ethnic Soul who has been steadily improving and should get the right pace setup. Shamateur offers value if able to control moderate fractions, while Zakhari could improve with equipment change. The suggested betting strategy allows coverage of the most likely scenarios while focusing on the best value opportunities.
Watch Race 4 at Woodbine on Friday and see how the AI made out. Win or lose, it will be interesting!
And we can make it better!