by Rob
Lucky Lady Go live longshot in Canada Day
I’m really not sure how Orville Got Even got up to win the seventh race on Wednesday night, but it was one of the happiest times I’ve had throwing away tickets. The Pick-4 carryover of $3,488 dollars makes Friday’s card that much more exciting. Not to be forgotten is the Pick-5 carryover of $1,735 dollars. I will take stabs at both, but both look expensive to say the least.
The Pick-4 and Pick-5 on Friday night will both be about trying to get a couple of favorites beat. I’m also looking at horses I can throw in that will guarantee a good price, and heavy favourites that might have a reason to lose. I try to structure tickets that stress my positive opinions while allowing me to be slightly wrong once. It’s a system that I think is more economical but also just as effective as buying one big ticket using all the contenders in every race.
Beaudacious Lady’s race to lose
Starting with the second race on Friday night I think that one of two things happens. Beaudacious Lady runs back to her last race figures and wins or one of the other logical horses improves enough to beat her, those being In the Other, Boo Bunny and Unbridled Thoughts. In the Other was running on six days rest when she was claimed last time and the break between starts this time should help her. Boo Bunny won first time out and was wide in her last, while Unbridled Thoughts is first off the claim for Jared Brown and ran well last time in the slop.
Only Officer to upset
The fourth race on Friday, an allowance race for 3- and 4-year-old Manitoba-bred fillies, is a prep for the Distaff. I think that this is a wide open race, but I definitely think that Kommando Kate is vulnerable. I would be very much inclined to use Only Officer just as much as Kommando Kate. Only Officer was lugging in the entire first half of the race in her last and should run better this time if they have that problem fixed. Halo’s Ring could rally at a price as well if the likely duel develops between Bondola and Grand Vision.
The Shotgun Approach: Shoot enough bullets and hope to hit something
The fifth is a spread race for Manitoba-bred non-winners of two lifetime. Bashful Coco should show more speed since moving from trainer Monique Goulet to Wade Rarick. I would like Maintenance Man a lot more in here if he wasn’t in post 11. He had a dream trip in his last and it’s difficult to imagine him getting that again. That really leaves Justlikeacowboy as the closer. I will probably throw in a couple of longer shots too, possibly Into Overtime, who has been roughed up recently; The Time is Right, who most likely had an excuse last time; and possibly Meow Wow dropping from open company to face Manitoba-breds.
3-year-old filly race comes up salty
I just can’t get a read on Friday’s sixth and featured race. I’m having a hard time picturing how the race will be run. Half of the horses want the lead and the other half look like they want to rally. La Chiqulina might be a false favorite however, as she has not beaten much (Oak Creek and Regal and Lovely are both still maidens) and she faces other speed in California Poppy and My Ponies Painted.
Duke of Sooke pulls the upset, if not, maybe Lilorphanfred or Stallwalker
The concluding leg of the Pick-4 is a $5,000 maiden claimer for Manitoba-breds. Gazy Gus is 8/5 on the morning line and I think he can be beat once again. I really like Duke of Sooke and Lilorphanfred in here. They both come out of tougher races and have tactical speed. It might be worth having Gazy Gus on your ticket, but he’s certainly not a single. Schmatz is another horse that does not like to win. Betting horses that are 0-for-10 and 0-for- 14 is tough. I really prefer horses that have yet to prove they don’t like to win. This is why Stallwalker might end up on some of my tickets. He’s a first time starter that shows a little bit of lick in the mornings and he will most certainly be a huge price.
I project the Pick-4 pool will exceed $10,000 and the Pick-5 pool will be in the area of $3,000. It definitely feels like a big payoff is in the making.
Saturday and Sunday Quick Preview
I think Saturday’s card is straightforward with horses like Dance the Dance, Call Me Misty and Mixed Intent. As for the rest of the weekend, take a good look at the longshots in Sunday’s Canada Day Stakes. Lucky Lady Go and Witch’s Coven could both rally into what looks to be a wicked duel between Honorable Lady, Golden Stripe and Ruby’s Big Band. Other Sunday horses like McCart and Vindgari are somewhat troubling. McCart has jumped shadows or done something odd in his last two. If he behaves he could wake up at a huge price.
As for my best bets and longshots of the day you can see I am doing pretty well thanks to Tizzy’s Desert Star.
Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots
Record to Date: 4-1-1 from 9 starts
Wagered: $135 Cashed: $159.65 Balance: + $24.65
- Friday Best Bet: Race 2 – Beaudacious Lady
- Friday Longshot: Race 7 – Duke of Sooke
- Saturday Best Bet: Race 4 – Dance the Dance
- Saturday Longshot: Race 2 – Miss Money Train
- Sunday Best Bet: Race 4 – Corner Pocket
- Sunday Longshot: Race 3 – Northern Gold
Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7 p.m. Friday, June 29, 2012