by Rob
A few years ago a long-time owner and racegoer Bob King spent a month narrating his picks in a blog. His musings, as wacky and off-beat as they might have been, were sometimes interesting to read.
Over the last five weeks of the season that’s what I have set out to do, provide some interesting off-beat insight into my approach to betting the races and to prove that it’s not an impossible task to beat the races at ASD.
I will give myself a daily bankroll that for a serious player is quite acceptable of $250 and every Saturday night and every holiday for the rest of the season I will post my plays and musings of the cards. This means I’ll have eight days and a total of $2,000 invested. Seems like a reasonable amount to hit. I will set no limits for myself but I would expect to see myself pass certain races I don’t like and normally spend between $30 and $80 on the Pick-4 every evening.
Let’s take a look at the Saturday, August 17 card.
Race 1, the Agassiz, is a pass for me. A four horse field with an easy winner in C.C. Ride at 2-5. This race offers no real value to me. If one of the two speed horses scratches maybe the other one is worth a small wager but the way it sits now, I will watch the first race.
Race 2 is an interesting race that bothers me a bit. Douglass, Thee Hemi, Sis Draper and Bellagio Road have all shown some sort of speed before and this race sets up for a closer, but I think Sis Draper for the above 40% Rob Atras barn is hard to play against. She does not need the lead either, so I think she can go with Bellagio Road if she wants to or sit just off the pace. Douglass and Wicked Landlord are in bad parts of their form cycles and Thee Hemi hasn’t run a race up to this Beyer since March. Cape Truth would need a big reversal of form as well, but on the cutback he’s a good candidate for third. Bellagio Road is good when he is on, but his last few races have been poor, so this leaves Sis Draper, who will be less than even money. That makes this race a pass as well.
Race 3, the Distaff is again a race that mandates a pass. Golden Stripe looks unbeatable at 1/5. The only way I would play this race is if the quinella and exactor with Golden Stripe over Tactical Girl is over 5$ and I can’t see that being the case, so I will pass.
Race 4 kicks off the 15% takeout Pick-4 and is another race that really does not do a whole lot for me from a single race betting perspective, but for the sake of the Pick-4 I think that Realistic Dreamer is a partial key for me and I would like to have Minotaur and Stormin Candy on another ticket.
$1 Pick 4 wheels for Saturday August 17, 2013
6/2, 4, 6, 7/1, 7/5, 6, 7 = $24
2, 4, 6, 7/6/1, 7/5, 6, 7 = $24
2, 4, 6, 7/2, 4, 6, 7/1, 7/5 = $32
Total cost = $80
Three different singles on three different tickets, I think two of these keys should win but I‘ll play it so that if only one wins I can be a winner.
Race 5 is the first race all day that intrigues me from a betting perspective. I love the rider change back to Renaldo Cumberbatch on Lots of Chrome, as he has won on the horse, and the fact that he will be major loose speed. No one else in this field wants the lead.
$20 Win on #6 Lots of Chrome
I also think that only a few horses can run underneath Lots of Chrome, so let’s play some Triactor part-wheels as well.
$2 Triactor 6/2,4/1,2,4,7 = $12
$1 Triactor 2,4/6/1,2,4,7 = $6
$1 Triactor 6/1,2,4,7/1,2,4,7 = $12
The first ticket is my main opinions for second, the second ticket is basically a place bet on Lots of Chrome if he gets caught late and the third ticket covers me if I am slightly wrong on the second place finisher. I really think Lots of Chrome should get the job done and I could see him going off at 2-1.
Race 6 is the third leg of the Pick 4 and I will only use the two Tom Gardipy Jr. trainees Great Cause and Dream Now. Both should be tough in here and it’s very possible that they’ll run 1-2. Neither will be a price however, so I don’t want to stress this opinion too much. I will try instead to have them run 1-3 or 1-4 and get a couple of bigger prices in between.
$5 Exactor Box 1,7 = $10 (This basically gets me my money back.)
$1 Triactor 1,7/2,3,4,6,8/1,7 = $10
$0.40 Superfecta 1,7/2,3,4/2,3,4,6,8/1,7 = $9.60
Race 7 is a race I feel like money can be made on. Two horses I have been waiting for show up in here, Pelee Island and Doc Tab. Hopefully Orchestration takes a whole lot of money and these two are a bit of a price for all of you. Pelee Island stretched out for the first time in his last race and ran a good third to a repeat winner and Bettina’s Rose, who came back to run well on Wednesday. He made up a bunch of ground in that race and now gets an extra sixteenth of a mile to work with. Doc Tab rallied on the dead part of the racetrack last Saturday night and got stalled in traffic. I am a little worried about Doc Tab because of his lack of route success and the fact he only ran seven days ago so I will lean heavier on Pelee Island.
$20 Win on #5 = $20
$8 Exactor 5/6 = $8
$4 Exactor 5/7,8 = $8
$2 Exactor 6,7/5 = $4
$1 Triactor 5/6,7,8/1,2,3,6,7,8 = $15
Race 8 is a bit of a crazy one going five furlongs. This race has a ton of speed in it and I’d like to take a small shot against it. Rascal on Tour, Daydream Dancer and Coolenoughtosizzle all want to be right up there. Vice is Nice and Keepherrockin have early speed as well. I would like to take a shot on Runaway Red and Grand Reflection rallying for a piece and the last race super will be my goal with $25.40 of my bankroll remaining.
$5 Win on 1, 2 = $10 (Very rarely will I bet two horses to win, but both of these fillies will be 10-1 or above so my hand is forced.)
$0.20 Super 2, 9/2, 9/1, 3, 7, 8/1, 3, 7, 8 = $4.80
$0.20 Super 2, 9/7, 8/2, 9/1, 3,6,7,8 = $3.20
$0.20 Super 2, 9/7, 8/1, 3, 6, 7, 8/2, 9 = $3.20
$0.20 Super 7, 8/2, 9/2, 9/1, 3,6,7,8 = $3.20
Check back next week to see how I did, or play along with me and let me know how you did.
Rob’s Best Bets and Weekend Longshots:
Record-to-Date: 10-8-5 from 40 starts
Wagered: $264.00 Returned: $202.10 Profit: $-61.90
Friday Best Bet: Race 3 – Zdeno
Friday Longshot: Race 2 – Midnight Chat
Saturday Best Bet: Race 3 – Golden Stripe
Saturday Longshot: Race 8 – Runaway Red
Next Post Time for Live Racing: 7 p.m. Friday, August 16, 2013