Player’s Choice Tourney winner Roger Jones
In a sport where conventional wisdom often dictates strategy, Roger Jones took the road less travelled at Assiniboia Downs last Saturday, and it led straight to the winner’s circle.
The veteran handicapper captured the Player’s Choice Handicapping Tournament by focusing exclusively on quarter horse races, a strategy few would dare attempt in a contest dominated by thoroughbred specialists. Jones parlayed his $60 starting bankroll into $128.90, edging out Jeff Rozmus ($125.50) in a photo finish, with Dave Giannotti ($120.20), Larry Liebrecht ($117.90), and Chuck Whalen ($109.70) rounding out the top five.
“It was a long time coming,” said Jones, a Winnipeg Transit driver who has claimed the local handicapping tournament multiple times but had experienced a drought in recent years.
Jones’s unconventional approach wasn’t a spur-of-the-moment decision but rather a carefully cultivated strategy developed over decades of handicapping experience.
“I play what I’m good at and what other people aren’t playing,” Jones explained. “It’s too tough for me at Santa Anita and Aqueduct and tracks like that.”
His strategy paid dividends when he connected on a 12-1 shot in a quarter horse race at Sunland Park that he considered a “complete standout.” The horse had previously won a maiden special weight and had competed in allowance company before dropping in class.
“This was a quarter horse race and the horse had won a maiden special weight maybe three back,” said Jones. “And then he tried a pair of tough allowance races, real high-class races, and he didn’t get away either time. And now he was in for $7,500 non-winners of two races lifetime.”
While most players overlooked the horse’s class advantage due to recent poor performances, Jones recognized the value. “To me it could be a negative drop, but if the horse gets out, he’s the class of the field. He was 12-1, and to me he should have been 3 or 4-1.”
Jones finished the tournament with six winners in total, including two in 200-yard quarter horse races at Louisiana Downs that paid around 5-1 each, complemented by a few shorter-priced winners late in the day to secure his victory. The $1,000 prize money will partially fund a family trip to Las Vegas next month.
The 54-year-old Jones has been handicapping races for 37 years, and credits several mentors for shaping his approach to handicapping, including Brian Gory, Marshall Posner, Bill Drew, Randy Premchuck, and others who taught him the fundamentals of speed, class, and race replay analysis.
Jones believes one advantage of handicapping quarter horse races is the straightforward pace scenario. “You don’t have to worry about the pace scenario. What are the riders going to do? They’re all going to go as fast as they can. There’s no thinking.”
This simplified tactical picture allows Jones to focus on pure quality assessment. When quarter horses break from the gate, the handicapper has already done the key work in judging relative ability.
“I’m not good enough to beat people who are playing Santa Anita or those kinds of places. They’re tough,” said Jones. “Why not play the places where people aren’t betting or the people who are playing it aren’t that good?”
Jones particularly enjoys playing quarter horse races at thoroughbred tracks, citing Canterbury Park as an example where most bettors lack specialized knowledge about the shorter-distance sprint races.
His approach exemplifies a crucial betting philosophy: find your niche and exploit market inefficiencies.
“I appreciate the Downs for hosting these contests,” Jones added. “They do a great job, especially Sheri (Glendinning). She’s awesome. You’ve got a question, she has the answer right away. This is like the biggest plus-EV (Expected Value) thing we’ve got going in racing. If you’re not playing in these contests, you’re nuts.”
As most contestants focused on major thoroughbred circuits, Jones quietly worked his quarter horse angles with precision. When the dust settled after the final race, his transit route had taken him straight to the tournament title, proving once again that sometimes…
The road less travelled makes all the difference.