By G.S. Thompson
The AI picked Formidable Man ($12.00) to win the 9th race at Del Mar last Saturday, so let’s see what it can do this week! We used a slightly different approach for this week’s analysis, feeding it the past performances for the Cigar Mile this Saturday at Aqueduct along with our personal analysis of each horse’s last race after watching the video replays. As always, AI is only as good as the person who is running it, so I guess we’ll see how good we are. 😊
CIGAR MILE HANDICAP (G2) Analysis
Race 9, Aqueduct, Saturday, December 7, 2024
1 Mile | Purse: $500,000 | 3-Year-Olds & Up
Top Selections:
1. MULLIKIN
2. POST TIME
3. LOCKED
Longshots:
1. COASTAL MISSION
2. LAW PROFESSOR
3. BOOK’EM DANNO
Saturday’s Grade 2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct shapes up as an intriguing matchup between lightly raced but talented Locked, the tough and classy Mullikin, and the ultra-consistent Post Time. With several speed horses signed on and multiple viable stalkers in the mix, the race offers both compelling drama and attractive wagering opportunities.
Mullikin stretches out to a mile for the first time. The speedy Violence colt exits a good third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and had impressed with consecutive stakes wins prior to that effort. While the distance is a question mark, his tactical speed should allow him to secure a good position under Flavien Prat. He can finish strong, and he’s also 1-for-1 at Aqueduct.
Post Time returns after a solid second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile where he made up significant ground late against a top field. The Brittany Russell trainee has been a model of consistency throughout his career, never finishing worse than third in 14 starts while compiling impressive speed figures. His tactical style should work perfectly with the projected pace scenario, though he’ll need to work out a trip from the outside post.
Locked enters in sharp form for trainer Todd Pletcher following an impressive allowance win at Aqueduct in his return from an 11-month layoff. The developing son of Gun Runner dominated that field by 7 1/2 lengths while displaying his trademark stalking style. His development pattern and natural talent suggest another forward move is possible. Most notably, he showed elite ability at two when winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and placing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Several appealing longshots warrant consideration in this deep field. Coastal Mission is in career-best form with back-to-back stakes wins and has finished first and second in his two starts at Aqueduct. Law Professor boasts back class and a strong local record, having won 5 of 7 starts over this track. He’s also trained by former ASD trainer Rob Atras. Book’em Danno has kept good company all year and may have been unlucky not to win the Perryville (G3) in his most recent start after encountering some minor traffic trouble in the stretch.
The likely pace battle among several front-runners increases the probability of the race setting up for a strong stalker or closer. While the favourites look formidable, the depth of the field and potential for an honest pace create the possibility for an upset.
Let’s cash some tickets!