By G.S. Thompson
Handicapping: Fun With Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI Test #3. Hollywood Derby on the Turf
HOLLYWOOD DERBY (G1) ADVANCE
Race 9, Del Mar, Saturday, November 30, 2024
1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Purse: $300,000
Hollywood Derby Picks
- Formidable Man
- Rothschild
- Donegal Momentum
- Carson’s Run
Value Plays
Carson’s Run
Attilan
Saturday’s Hollywood Derby shapes up as a fascinating test featuring unbeaten local star Formidable Man against a deep cast of challengers. With Del Mar turf form and proven graded stakes ability scattered throughout the field, the race offers compelling wagering opportunities.
Formidable Man brings a perfect 3-for-3 local record and enters off consecutive stakes wins over this course and distance. The McCarthy trainee showed his class defeating several of today’s rivals in the Del Mar Derby, and his tactical versatility under Rispoli is a major asset. The 75-day freshening raises slight concerns at 4-1 on the morning line.
Rothschild enters having shown particular affinity for the Del Mar turf course, with strong performances in both the Cecil B. DeMille and Oceanside Stakes. The Tim Yakteen trainee gets a significant rider upgrade to Flavien Prat and has been training forwardly since his subpar effort in the Twilight Derby. His tactical style should put him in an ideal position behind what projects as honest fractions. While still seeking his first turf victory, his closing kick over this course makes him dangerous at fair odds.
Donegal Momentum ships west with impressive momentum after back-to-back New York victories. The Uncle Mo colt keeps Castellano aboard and brings strong closing fractions from his recent wins. While facing tougher here, his development pattern suggests another forward move is possible.
Carson’s Run adds intrigue while dropping back in distance for Clement. The Grade 1 winner at longer trips has shown consistent improvement and retains Davis for this shorter test. His late pace in longer races suggests he could be dangerous if the pace develops honestly.
The Hollywood Derby presents compelling value opportunities in a deep and competitive field. Rothschild’s affinity for the Del Mar turf course, rider upgrade, and tactical ability make him the key play at attractive odds. Formidable Man’s perfect local record demands respect, while several proven graded stakes performers create opportunities for prices throughout the vertical exotics.
Multiple overlay situations exist across all pools. Our main strategy focuses on capitalizing on Rothschild’s value while using logical contenders underneath. The presence of both tactical types and proven closers provides coverage against various pace scenarios over the nine-furlong distance.
Good Luck!